Skip to main content

Breaking the Mould

The tectonic plates- as John Prescott once had it- are shifting.

The instability on the global credit markets is undermining people's sense of confidence and as the avilability and terms of mortgages- if not the actual interest rates- grow more onerous, the era of cheap money, at least as far as the UK housing market is concerned, seems to have finally ended.

So what now?

Well, no one really knows, though i notice that the political climate is changing in the UK.

The opinion polls are showing a more entrenched lead for the Conservatives. Interestingly, for the first time for several years, The Liberal Democrats have come above 21%. In the historic scheme of things, the Liberal Democrats have tended to sit around the high teens, and then gain a little further during a general election campaign.

This changed in the last parliament, where the support for the Liberal Democrats firmed up strongly, as the result of a recognition that the party had taken a principled stand against the war in Iraq, but faded a little closer to the election in 2005.

The difference this time, seems to be that Labour are without the communication skills of Tony Blair. I don't know if things can get worse for Gordon Brown, but I am beginning to feel that things could certainly get better for the Liberal Democrats. Perhaps it is even possible that the party, far from losing seats at the next election, might even make an overall gain.

That, from this Liberal perspective, really would be a tectonic shift.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Concert and Blues

Tallinn is full tonight... Big concerts on at the Song field The Weeknd and Bonnie Tyler (!). The place is buzzing and some sixty thousand concert goers have booked every bed for thirty miles around Tallinn. It should be a busy high summer, but it isn´t. Tourism is down sharply overall. Only 70 cruise ships calling this season, versus over 300 before Ukraine. Since no one goes to St Pete, demand has fallen, and of course people think that Estonia is not safe. We are tired. The economy is still under big pressure, and the fall of tourism is a significant part of that. The credit rating for Estonia has been downgraded as the government struggles with spending. The summer has been a little gloomy, and soon the long and slow autumn will drift into the dark of the year. Yesterday I met with more refugees: the usual horrible stories, the usual tears. I try to make myself immune, but I can´t. These people are wounded in spirit, carrying their grief in a terrible cradling. I try to project hop

Media misdirection

In the small print of the UK budget we find that the Chancellor of the Exchequer (the British Finance Minister) has allocated a further 15 billion Pounds to the funding for the UK track and trace system. This means that the cost of the UK´s track and trace system is now 37 billion Pounds.  That is approximately €43 billion or US$51 billion, which is to say that it is amount of money greater than the national GDP of over 110 countries, or if you prefer, it is roughly the same number as the combined GDP of the 34 smallest economies of the planet.  As at December 2020, 70% of the contracts for the track and trace system were awarded by the Conservative government without a competitive tender being made . The program is overseen by Dido Harding , who is not only a Conservative Life Peer, but the wife of a Conservative MP, John Penrose, and a contemporary of David Cameron and Boris Johnson at Oxford. Many of these untendered contracts have been given to companies that seem to have no notewo

Bournemouth absence

Although I had hoped to get down to the Liberal Democrat conference in Bournemouth this year, simple pressure of work has now made that impossible. I must admit to great disappointment. The last conference before the General Election was always likely to show a few fireworks, and indeed the conference has attracted more headlines than any other over the past three years. Some of these headlines show a significant change of course in terms of economic policy. Scepticism about the size of government expenditure has given way to concern and now it is clear that reducing government expenditure will need to be the most urgent priority of the next government. So far it has been the Liberal Democrats that have made the running, and although the Conservatives are now belatedly recognising that cuts will be required they continue to fail to provide even the slightest detail as to what they think should guide their decisions in this area. This political cowardice means that we are expected to ch